Aug. 30, 2022 -- according to the survey of trendforce Jibang consulting, the production planning for the second quarter has been quite conservative under the consideration that the smartphone brand manufacturers give priority to adjusting the channel inventory. At the same time, due to the impact of the epidemic, the already weak market demand has become more severe, and the brand factories have been forced to reduce their production targets to cope with it. As a result, in the second quarter, which used to have a lot of growth in production, it showed a seasonal decrease of 6%, and the global output was only about 292 million. Compared with the production performance of the same period in 2021, there is an annual decline of 5%.
Samsung, as the main sales force in Europe, was forced to carry out a series of inventory adjustments for finished products and parts due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, including large-scale promotion and suspension of parts procurement. As a result, the production volume in the second quarter was significantly reduced by nearly 16.3% to 61.8 million units. Looking forward to the third quarter, Samsung still focuses on the adjustment of channel inventory. In addition, it is conservative about the future trend. It is estimated that the total production in the third quarter will be flat or slightly increased compared with the second quarter. It is worth noting that in recent years, due to Samsung's active investment in the R & D and marketing of folding machines, it has successfully continued the boom of folding machines, and has also become the leader of the market. Taking the global market share of folding machines of about 1.1% this year, Samsung will account for nearly 90% of the market.
The second quarter is the transition period for the handover of Apple's new and old models, and is mostly the quarter with the lowest annual production performance. In the second quarter, due to the impact of the epidemic in Shanghai, Kunshan and other places, the supply chain supply was impacted, and the performance of the initial crop movement was affected. After the epidemic subsided, the production capacity adjustment has made up for the previous output gap. In the second quarter, there were still 48.2 million units, ranking the second in the world. Looking forward to the third quarter, among the four new models, the iPhone 14 pro and pro Max processors will be upgraded to a16 (TSMC 4nm), the initial memory capacity will be increased to lpddr5 6GB and 256gb, the main lens pixels will be increased to 48 million, and the face ID appearance design changes will be added. It is estimated that the initial price will also rise with it. However, under the pressure of global high inflation and foreign exchange differences, apple is expected to adopt a more cautious pricing strategy to avoid affecting sales performance. The estimated price increase should be within $100.
The production quantity of oppo (including realme and oneplus) is 38.8 million, with a quarterly decrease of 4.2%; Xiaomi (including redmi, poco and black shark) produced 38 million pieces in the second quarter, with a seasonal decrease of 14.6%; Since vivo (including iqoo) began to adjust its production rhythm significantly in the first quarter, it rebounded to 25.7 million units in the second quarter, with a quarter increase of 12.7%. The above three brands ranked third to fifth respectively. The three brands have a high degree of overlap in sales market and product planning. In the second quarter, the Chinese market was also affected by the epidemic, and the Indian market was affected by extreme weather, which led to a downturn in sales in the two major markets, thus affecting the production performance in the second quarter. Moreover, due to the rapid rise of honor from the Chinese market, it also poses a considerable threat to the market share of oppo, Xiaomi and vivo. It is estimated that its market share in China will surpass Xiaomi and close to oppo and vivo in 2022.
Looking forward to the third quarter, considering many negative factors in the market and the channel inventory still needs to be digested, trendforce Jibang consulting believes that the production volume of oppo, Xiaomi and vivo brands is only about the same in the second quarter, but they all show a sharp decline of more than 10% compared with the same period last year, indicating that the market performance in the second half of 2022 is worrying. On the whole, the growth focus of the three major brands in the future will mainly depend on expanding overseas markets.
Under the impact of the epidemic, the global Smartphone Production in the second quarter was only 292 million, a decrease of 6% in the quarter
Under the impact of the epidemic, the global Smartphone Production in the second quarter was only 292 million, a decrease of 6% in the quarter
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